During that time, Broockman continued to speak with LaCour now and again — he says the two have averaged about one Google Hangout per month for the last two years — and when he did, he would often ask him questions about his survey methodology. It was the Miami project that finally nudged Broockman and Kalla toward their first hard evidence that LaCour had done something wrong.
A few months in, during a pilot study they were conducting, the duo were struggling to figure out how LaCour had been able to get such a high response rate — 12 percent in the first wave, which is a very solid number.
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For a survey request they sent out via mail to 13, Miami-Dade County voters on May 8, only about respondents had agreed to participate as of a week later — less than one percent. Broockman and Kalla were offering as much money, per survey, as LaCour had paid his respondents.
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Jason Peterson, then, was their man — he might be able to explain what was going on with their poor response rates. Broockman asked Kalla to call him; Kalla went upstairs and did. He came back a little bit later. There was no employee named Jason Peterson at uSamp. An email to double check confirmed this: Later that night, Broockman hosted a Hawaiian-themed graduation party at his apartment. About 70 people came — a mix of grad-school friends, family, and friends he had made in the Bay Area.
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Yet even with the revelation about Jason Peterson, Broockman and Kalla still thought they lacked the smoking gun they needed. Right as the party started, Kalla tried to get Broockman to chill: But it was now almost impossible for Broockman to stop talking about the paper. He ended up talking to Malhotra some more. Yet again, Malhotra said: Be careful.
But, in addition to the revelation about Peterson, Broockman was starting to feel moral concerns: The next day, Saturday, May 16, Broockman and Kalla — and now Aronow, the Yale political scientist and survey-statistics specialist whom the pair brought onboard in the wake of the Peterson discovery — had their true smoking gun.
It included the same gay-marriage and feeling-thermometer items LaCour had in his study.
A couple simple statistical tests later, and there was no longer much doubt: Green posted his retraction request publicly on May 19, the same day Broockman, Kalla, and Aronow posted their report. That was also the day Broockman graduated. On May 20, the well-read science blog Retraction Watch broke the news of the scandal, which would eventually bring the site so much traffic that it crashed.
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